Applied Seminar

Manuel Pinho

Columbia University


Seminar 3 – 14:30


China´s performance since the economic reform initiated in the late 70´s by Deng Xiaoping is impressive and delivered positive results that nobody anticipated: in just 35 years it became the largest economy in the world and the largest trading nation, it reached high middle-income status, lifted directly an estimated 500 million of people out of poverty and became a leader in several areas. Unsurprisingly, China is in the middle of a complex transition. After growing at 10% p.a. on average during 3 decades supported by investment and a strong export performance, the economy is shifting to a new stage of slower GDP growth, the so-called «new normal». This is much more than a domestic issue given that the world will be totally different whether China is successful in unfolding the «new normal» and achieves its medium term target of becoming a «moderately prosperous economy by 2035» or, alternatively, if it falls in the so-called middle income trap.

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