Seminario Theory-Experimental

Tim Kehoe

University of Minnesota


seminar – 14:30


Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models are the dominant tool for the analysis of trade policy. Unfortunately, AGE models have historically performed poorly when used to predict the industry level impact of trade liberalization. We develop a flexible methodology for estimating industry level trade elasticities based on finding the elasticities that yield AGE model predictions that best fit previous liberalizations. We show that these elasticities yield significantly improved predictions in tests of external validity, in part because they implicitly capture the extensive margin growth of least traded products (LTPs) from Kehoe & Ruhl (2013), which occurs during liberalization. We show explicitly including the LTP margin further increases the predictive power of AGE models.

Deja un comentario

Tu dirección de correo electrónico no será publicada. Los campos requeridos están marcados *

Puedes usar las siguientes HTML etiquetas y atributos: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

borrar formularioEnviar

Este sitio usa Akismet para reducir el spam. Aprende cómo se procesan los datos de tus comentarios.