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Menu back  

The hot hand is back!

In a recent paper (see link below), our colleague Adam Sanjurjo (U. Alicante) and Joshua Miller (U. Bocconi) have re-opened the debate on the hot hand, giving a cold-shower to the traditional results on its non-existence. Their paper has been #1 downloaded paper for several weeks at SSRN, and included in SSRN’s Top Papers of 2015.

There has been a lot of chatter online about this. Here is the former Commissioner of the NBA, David Stern, with the Wall Street Journal article on stage at Columbia University (he read it to the audience):
https://twitter.com/SamWalkers/status/649061639979966464
https://twitter.com/JayKapoorNYC/status/649009258835652608
This media story began last July, when the prominent statistician Andrew Gelman, at Columbia, blogged on it:

http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand/

This generated a discussion by Mathematicians about Miller and Sanjurjo’s work:

John Allen Paulos:

https://twitter.com/JohnAllenPaulos/status/624753503454543872

Steven Strogatz a Mathematician from Cornell, in two conversations:

https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/620361776337698816
https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/620362106383241216

You may acess the paper here:

Miller J. and A. Sajurjo (2015): “Surprised by the Gambler’s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers.” SSRN, 2015.

Paper
Academic Blogs, Magazines & Notes

August (2014)

  • Andrew Gelman‘s blog:
    • http://andrewgelman.com/2014/08/12/understanding-hot-hand-myth-hot-hand-time/ (please, see comments)

July (2015)

  • Andrew Gelman‘s Blog:
    • http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand/ (please, see comments)
  • Cultural Cognition Project at Yale:
    • http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2015/7/10/holy-smokes-the-hot-hand-fallacy-fallacy.html
    • http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2015/7/19/weekend-update-still-fooled-by-non-randomness-some-gadgets-t.html
  • Chance News:
    • https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_105

August (2015)

  • The Hot Hand in Sports blog:
    • http://thehothand.blogspot.it/2015/08/new-study-of-nba-three-point-contest.html (please, see comments)
    • A response to the Vox and Economist article
  • Yosi Rinott & Bar-Hillel Comment:
    • http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2642450
  • Significance Magazine
    • http://www.statslife.org.uk/sports/2396-has-the-hot-hand-effect-finally-been-proven
  • Phil Birnbaum:
    • http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2015/08/can-hot-hand-turn-average-players-into.html
    • A follow up on the Significance magazine article.

September (2015)

  • Andrew Gelman‘s Blog:
    • http://andrewgelman.com/2015/09/30/hot-hand-explanation-again/
    • A response to the WSJ article
  • Nada es Gratis (Spain’s most influential economics blog), by Pedro Rey Biel:
    http://nadaesgratis.es/pedro-rey-biel/existen-las-rachas-ba-lon-ces-to-y-otras-cosas

October (2015)

  • Neurologicablog:
    • http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/innumeracy-the-hot-hands-debate-continues/
  • Godel’s Lost Letter, Mathematicians & Computers Scientists RJLipton & KWRegan:
    • https://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2015/10/12/is-the-hot-hand-fallacy-a-fallacy/
  • Association for Psychological Science:
    • http://www.psychologicalscience.org/index.php/news/the-hot-hand-debate-gets-flipped-on-its-head.html
  • Mind Your Decisions (Popular Math Puzzle blog):
    • http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2015/10/06/the-hot-hand-is-real-understanding-a-controversial-statistics-paper-game-theory-tuesdays/#.Vi5von6rRMw
  • Steve Landsburg
    • http://www.thebigquestions.com/2015/10/07/boys-girls-and-hot-hands/
  • Singular Values
    • http://blog.singularvalues.com/2015/10/players-have-hot-hands-after-all.html
  • True Economics
    • http://trueeconomics.blogspot.it/2015/10/171015-lets-talk-about-law-of-small.html
  • Gli State Generali
    • http://www.glistatigenerali.com/scienze-sociali/la-hot-hand-delle-scienze-comportamentali/
  • SSRN
    • http://ssrnblog.com/2015/10/09/weekly-top-5-papers-october-9-2015/
    • http://ssrnblog.com/2015/10/23/weekly-top-5-papers-october-23-2015/

November (2015)

  • American Mathematical Society:
    • http://blogs.ams.org/blogonmathblogs/2015/11/10/fallacy-of-the-fallacy-of-the-hot-hand/#sthash.qNoszDJh.dpbs
  • Press People:
    • http://www.presspeople.com/nota/investigador-ua-confirma-mito-mano-caliente
  • The Perception of Action Podcast:
    • http://perceptionactionpodcast.libsyn.com/15c-interview-with-josh-miller-have-we-been-wrong-about-the-hot-hand-effect-for-30-years
  • Antonello Lecis Blog:
    • http://www.antonellolecis.com/blog/2014/11/28/mano-calda-nello-sport/
  • Martin Rebas
    • http://www.rebas.se/
  • Lo Campus Diari
    • http://locampusdiari.com/arxius/32360
  • Full Basket
    • http://fullbasket.es/2015/11/20/hot-hand-del-dicho-al-hecho/
  • Ivoox Podcast
    • http://www.ivoox.com/ciencias-para-normales-17-16-11-2015-audios-mp3_rf_9395866_1.html
  • SSRN
    • http://ssrnblog.com/2015/10/09/weekly-top-5-papers-october-9-2015/
    • http://ssrnblog.com/2015/10/23/weekly-top-5-papers-october-23-2015/

December (2015)

  • “Coolest article of the yr—hot hands down!” Cultural Cognition Project at Yale:
    • http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2015/12/31/coolest-article-of-the-yr-hot-hands-down.html
  • Dan Gusfield (Computer Scientist at UCD):
    • http://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.08773.pdf

 

More reactions
  • John Allen Paulos (popular mathematician)
    • https://twitter.com/JohnAllenPaulos/status/624753503454543872
  • Steven Strogatz (prominent mathematician from Cornell)
    • https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/620361776337698816
    • https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/620362106383241216
  • Mohamed A. El-Erian (former PIMCO head)
    • https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/655689905712959488
  • Tim Harford
    • https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/656026453562269696
    • https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/619489642824384513
  • John Preskill (Caltech theoretical physicist)
    • https://twitter.com/preskill/status/655773051838042112
  • Eric Topol (prominent physician)
    • https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/655548146471141376
  • Noah Smith (econ blogger)
    • https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/619492293230338048
  • Joël Van der Weele:
    • http://blogs.ams.org/blogonmathblogs/2015/11/10/fallacy-of-the-fallacy-of-the-hot-hand/#sthash.qNoszDJh.dpbs

Adam Sanjurjo

Joshua Miller

“People were right to believe the hot hand exists”

Media
  • New Yorker
  • New York Times 1 and 2
  • Wall Street Journal
  • The Economist
  • VOX
  • Psychology Today
  • Science Daily
  • Tech Times
  • Sports Illustrated (with radio interview)
  • NPR (with radio interview)
  • Cadena Ser (with radio interview)
  • Tampa Bay Times
  • Youtube
  • Wall Street Journal – Asia
  • United News of India
  • Basketnet.it
  • Corriere del Sera (1) and (2)
  • La Repubblica
  • diario.mx
  • Valuewalk
Other reactions
  • Econometrics by simulation
  • rpubs.com
  • nathanieldphillips.com
  • stackoverflow
  • StackExchange
  • reddit
  • TwoPlusTwo.com
  • Witt
  • alpha arquitect
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